As Gulf of Mexico Rises, Who Along Coast Is Most Vulnerable?

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(TNS) – All along the Mississippi Coast, where the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico can quickly stir up storms, scientists who track the tides are warning of a stark new problem: The sea in the South is rising faster than most other places in the world.

It’s hard to see. But inch by inch, scientists say water is creeping over white sand beaches and up muddy rivers, bringing more floods, worse storm surges and a flush of saltwater that could upend life for thousands in the region’s low-lying wetlands by the end of this century.

“It’s happening so much faster,” said Ali Rellinger, a Mississippi State instructor who leads the Program for Local Adaptation to Climate Effects in Biloxi.

Tide gauge data shows Mississippi Coast waters rose 8 inches in the last 30 years. Scientists predict the water will rise 18 inches in the next three decades.

Researchers expect seas could rise another 3.84 feet by the end of this century. And the fallout could come sooner: more than 28,000 people across the Mississippi Coast live in homes that would flood with less than two feet of sea level rise, which is forecast to arrive between 2060 and 2070.

Signs of the problem are quiet but already clear in places near Bay St. Louis, which has some of the lowest land on the Coast and where researchers say high tide flooding has increased by 1,100 percent over the last quarter century.

Tropical Storm Alberto’s surge washed over Shoreline Park this summer even though its eye struck hundreds of miles away in Mexico. Heavy April rains drowned roads across the region with several feet of muddy water. Hurricane Ida in 2021 unleashed flooding like few had ever seen in Kiln, where residents used canoes to paddle the streets and pulled wet mail from submerged roadside mailboxes.

“It’s definitely increased,” Brian “Hooty” Adam, Hancock County’s Emergency Management director, said of the flooding. His staff, with help from local fire and law enforcement, scatters across the county to catalog flooding on dozens of streets when the tide gets high.

“Part of that is sea level rise,” said Renee Collini, director of the Community Resilience Center at The Water Institute.

Cities across the Coast are racing against time. Hancock County is spending millions of dollars to repair drainage systems that often are no match for neighborhoods surrounded by rising water. New homes are built more than a dozen feet in the air to prepare for higher storm surge. Communities have also taken it on themselves: Growing frustration over regular flooding has led some Coast residents to demand federal money to raise their homes above the looming tides. And New Bethel Missionary Baptist Church of Biloxi recently built a rain garden near its chronically-flooded parking lot so its parishioners can worship without walking through water.

“This is how we’ve got to look at things,” said Gordon Jackson, development manager at the Steps Coalition, a nonprofit group that helped the church secure grant money.

The water on the Mississippi Coast is not rising as rapidly as some places in the South, and will not swallow the state’s land like it has already in parts of coastal Louisiana.

But the rising water is dangerous because it is bringing more frequent flooding, higher tides and taxed drainage systems, which scientists say fuel bigger surges from even minor tropical storms. It is also a hidden problem. Higher seas could send saltwater through underground systems, which could contaminate drinking water and turn pipes to rust.

“It’s not obvious,” Rellinger said. “Then you think about it, and you’re like, ‘Oh crud.'”

The water could also reshape the Coast. If seas rise between 3 and 4 feet by 2100, as scientists are predicting, water would flood swaths of Hancock County, including Shoreline Park, the Jourdan River and in some areas of Waveland and Bay St. Louis, according to sea level rise simulations from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Water would drown coastal marshes and kill nurseries for shrimp, blue crab, speckled trout and redfish. It could wash beside Interstate 10 where it crosses from Louisiana to Mississippi. The Gulf would creep toward the Stennis Space Center and seep through inlets into Pass Christian. Much of Long Beach, Gulfport and Biloxi would be spared, but water would wash over parts of Highway 90 and barrier islands would slip under the tides. The Pascagoula River would become a bay that extends close to Vancleave.

Why the Gulf South fares the worst in recent studies of sea level rise is not entirely clear. Scientists say it could be because land here is slightly sinking. Or because gravity and currents pull melted glacier water down, where it pools in the shallow Gulf waters. Or because warm water takes up more space, and the Gulf of Mexico is already hot as a bathtub. Scientists are still puzzling other things out, like whether the water will keep rising faster or even out over the next few decades.

But they have no doubt it will force the Coast to adapt. Collini said rising seas mean cities must figure out how to store rainwater, replace beach sand at faster pace, study building code standards or even relocate important infrastructure. Researchers are also trying to instill urgency in the next generation. Instructors in South Mississippi are already helping high school teachers create lessons about sea level rise, Rellinger said, and those lessons will soon be taught in lower grades.

The measures reflect a growing shift toward resilience — the idea that coastal cities must prepare for a watery future or risk drowning in its wake.

“We have to adapt,” Rellinger said. “We have to come up with ways to live with that water.”